THE HYPE CYCLE

HOW TO IDENTIFY THE NEXT BIG THING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggest companies are pondering right now: Will Facebook survive, Will Microsoft "Bing" evolve? What will be the next big thing? will it be relevant useful and will people love it?

Nobody knows the answers to these questions, but the people at stamford consulting company Gartner might know more than most. They have invented a model called the hype cycle to characterise the uber-enthusiasm or hype and subsequent disappointment that typically comes with new technologies.
What people love about technology is, basically that it works. Email works, internet works, text messaging works. What do they all have in common? They all went through each five phases of the hype cycle.

1. Technology trigger. The product is on the market and you hear about it everywhere:" Have you checked this out?'

2. Peak of inflated expectations. The Hype is at its peak, but people start to find mistakes. You hear 'yeah its great but....

3. Trough of disillusionment. The product fils to meet expectations. The not so cool people use it. You hear 'Its four years ago'


4. Slope of enlightenment. The media have stopped covering the technology, the hype is over this is when many technologies simply fall out of the market. But some businesses might continue to experiment. They might change the original version find new uses for it. You hear ' I never thought of it before, but you could use this in a different way'

5. Plateau of productivity. The benefits of the technology become widely demonstrated and accepted. Often it is the 2.0 or 3.0 version that emerges form  the experimental phase to become a success. You hear... nothing any more. People simply use it.

Love is forever as long as it lasts.