Friday 21 October 2016

THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION MODEL

Lazy salesxpert Julie Sulter The number pi (3.1415927...) is what mathematicians call irrational. It never be written out in full. It continues for an infinite number of decimal places in a seemingly random sequence of digits. Randomness is found in many phenomena that we would like to be able to predict, such as changes in the weather or movements in share prices. Inspired by the casino city Monte Carlo , a computer simulation method is being developed to calculate these apparently incalculable phenomena.

If you roll the dice you know that it will get a 1,2,3,4,5 or 6, but what you don't know is which of these numbers you will get within a given roll. This is exactly how the Monte Carlo simulation works. By running multiple trials based on random sampling to determine an outcome. Using a combination of probability calculation and statistics.

Why is the Monte Carlo model important? Because it reminds us that models do not represent reality. I simply approximation of reality.

If I know exactly what I'm going to do what's good in doing Pablo Picasso. 

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